Nomination voting is from January 8–12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11–18, 2025. And finally, the 97th The Oscars The telecast will air on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7pm ET/ 4pm PT. We’ll be updating our picks throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all of ours Oscars predictions 2025.
Race condition
With the announcement of PGA Awards 2025 nominationsalmost all the major Oscar precursors have shown their cards when it comes to what they think deserves a nomination slot in Best picture. And ultimately, there has been less consensus this year.
For example, had you asked the majority of prognosticators the day before PGA Nominations lost, they would probably tell you that Paramount Pictures’ “September 5th” is out of the running. But given how the PGA Awards predicted it the entire Best Picture lineup and winner last year, its recognition of the newsroom thriller is to be taken seriously.
Now that we are at the end of the road, the surprise is even bigger Golden Globesin retrospect, to be much more on the money than it ever was. Usually the Best Picture – Drama category is the one to watch, with Best Picture – Musical or Comedy as a hub for random populist fodder. But this year, the argument can be made that all 12 nominees in the combined categories have a shot at an Oscar nomination for Best Picture.
“September 5” was there, too, nominated in drama alongside “Nickel Boys,” one of the films snubbed by the PGA Awards. “Challengers,” which also missed out on a PGA Awards nod, was perhaps the weakest link in musical or comedy in terms of best picture potential, but the Globes category as a whole included “Anora,” “A Real Pain,” “The Substance,” “Wicked” and winner “Emilia Pérez,” all of which have won and/or been nominated for major guild and critics awards, making them highly favored to be one of the 10 Oscar nomination slots.
What seems to fall by the wayside this year, as indicated by SAG Awards 2025 nominationsare films led by a black actor, and films not in English. On the first point, “Sing Sing,” led by recent Oscar nominee Colman Domingo, was snubbed by both the Golden Globes and the PGA Awards, meaning it has fallen short of expectations in the best picture race. It was also particularly ominous to be nominated for a Best Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards, as many expected actors, who make up both the voting body of SAG and the largest branch of the Academy, to appreciate how film focused on the healing properties of his profession. “The Piano Lesson,” another film with a majority black cast, has also had minimal impact this awards season, although the two previous Denzel Washington-produced August Wilson adaptations were Oscar winners.
International titles have fared slightly better, with “Emilia Pérez”, France’s entry for Best International Filmwhich is an awards season juggernaut. It is the only film considered a lock for a Best Picture nomination whose characters primarily speak a language other than English. It would be the first Spanish-language film since “Roma” to receive a Best Picture nomination. It’s still progress in one sense, but we’re coming off a previous season where both “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” made it to Best Picture and won multiple Oscars. International contenders like “All We Imagine As Light,” “I’m Still Here” and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” don’t get the same treatment as these films, despite once being on similar paths. The only major difference is that they are not set in Europe or North America.
There are probably more movies that would be a surprise snub than there are movies that would be a big surprise nominee, so it’s probably best to say that “A Real Pain” and “Dune: Part Two” are the two consistently recognized movies that find themselves in the weakest position as nomination voting draws to a close.
Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order below.
Predecessors:
“A Complete Unknown”
“A Real Pain”
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Perez”
“Nickel Boys”
“the subject”
“Evil”
Contenders:
“Everything we imagine as light”
“Challenger”
“September 5th”
“Sing Sing”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
