The nomination notice of PGA Awards 2025 made for a tough morning for the Oscar campaigns of “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing” in particular.
Since Producers Guild of America uses the same system as the Academy to determine its nominees for the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures – a 10-seat priority ballot – it is widely seen as the most accurate precursor to Best Picture. In fact, its nominees completely mirrored that who the Best Picture nominees were year 2024.
Have things really changed that much between now and December, then winner of the AFI Awards was announced? In recent years, this awards section has been nearly as accurate in predicting the final 10 Best Picture nominees, often leaving out the international titles. For example, the American one Film The institute had “May December” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” last year instead of eventual nominees “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest,” but the latter films were not produced in the United States.
Based on these two lists alone, and all the nominations that have occurred in between, the surest bets for a Best Picture nomination are “A Complete Unknown,” “A Real Pain,” “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked.” One can guess that “The Substance” was not on the AFI list because it is a French production. The body horror hit was initially read as too gory for Academy members’ tastes when it premiered at Cannes, but peaks at just the right moment, right after Demi Moore won Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes. A Best Picture nomination seems imminent at this point.
The real wildcard is “September 5.” First shopped around at fall festivals by Republic Pictures, which is a Paramount company, the studio eventually bought it after receiving good feedback from critics. But it’s a tricky title to campaign for awards. The film is a true ensemble piece with the most famous star being Peter Sarsgaard, who has long been considered more of a character actor. The fact that “September 5th” is about how ABC Sports covered the kidnapping and murder of the 11 members of the Israeli team by Black September at the 1972 Munich Olympics gives it a sense of timeliness, as the conflict between Israel and Palestine is still on top. mind, but there have been no additional Oscar categories in which the film has ever felt competitive.
There has always been an idea that PGA Awards are more populist than the Oscars, so it’s not just “September 5th” that doesn’t seem destined to make the finals. There’s just as easily an argument to be made for a “Dune: Part Two” dude. But despite being an awards body that has little overlap with the Academy, the Golden Globes nominations became an early sign that the Oscar prospects of critically beloved indies “Sing Sing” and “Nickel Boys” have waned worldwide. board.
Divert our attention to the 2025 PGA Awards TV nominations, also announced Jan. 16, the Comedy Series category offers more of the same, with frequent Emmy winners “Hacks,” “The Bear,” “Abbott Elementary” and “Only Murders in the Building” all making the cut. along with the farewell season of “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” The drama series category includes shows like “Bad Sisters,” “The Diplomat” and “Slow Horses,” which have built their awards profiles each season, but FX phenomenon “Shōgun” still seems hard to beat. “Baby Reindeer” is also a formidable force in the Limited Series category, but newcomer “The Penguin” has so far been the 2024 Emmy ineligible contender to win multiple times this winter TV awards season. However, the jury is out on whether “The Batman” spinoff series will remain a limited series when Emmy season rolls around.
